Great Lakes ice coverage predicted to be below normal for most lakes this winter

PICKERING, ONTARIO, CANADA – JANUARY 23: On January 23, 2024, an overhead photograph shows ice fishermen at Frenchman’s Bay on Lake Ontario in Pickering, Ontario, Canada. (Image courtesy of Getty Images/Mert Alper Dervis/Anadolu)

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    Great Lakes ice coverage will be slightly below normal for most of the lakes this 2024-25 season
    
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    Researchers with NOAA said global season patterns that influence the weather will bring “very strong warm” conditions to the region, overwhelming the other regional systems
    
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    Lake Superior had the most ice coverage at just over 1.2% the day before winter officially arrives
    

• 
  Great Lakes ice coverage will be slightly below normal for most of the lakes this 2024-25 season
  
• 
  Researchers with NOAA said global season patterns that influence the weather will bring “very strong warm” conditions to the region, overwhelming the other regional systems
  
• 
  Lake Superior had the most ice coverage at just over 1.2% the day before winter officially arrives
  

(FOX 2):Scientists are forecasting a year with ice coverage on much of the Great Lakes that is just below average, with winter almost here in Michigan.

During the 2024–25 winter, Lake Ontario will have average levels of ice cover, although Lake Superior, Michigan, Huron, and Erie will all have less than usual.

Following reports of an almost record low for ice coverage, this would be a positive development.

Parts of Lake Superior begin to freeze over first, and the Great Lakes Environmental Research Lab (GLERL) begins monitoring ice coverage in early December. As of December 20, it was primarily confined to the lake body’s surface.

As of Friday, no other lake had more than 1%. January and February will see the formation of the majority of the anticipated ice.

A mild season of ice cover is anticipated, according to a GLERL ice climatologist, who also noted that daily weather trends are influenced by global seasonal patterns.

“This year, both AMO and PDO are bringing very strong warm weather conditions to the Great Lakes region,” according to Dr. Jia Wang. “This will overwhelm the cooling caused by this year s neutral ENSO conditions, so a mild winter is likely.”

Whereas ENSO discusses El Ni o, the AMO and PDO discuss climatic systems over the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans.

Every winter, over half of the Great Lakes usually ice. Researchers anticipate a record-breaking low in terms of lake ice this year, therefore that won’t happen.

Lake Superior

The amount of ice in Lake Superior will vary depending on one’s location. Parts of the Canadian shoreline in Thunder Bay and Nipigon may experience some ice in December, and by the end of January, the ice will have thickened. By mid-February, it will be at its thickest.

With the exception of sheltered bays, which will freeze over sooner, the ice throughout the Michigan shoreline will not be more than an inch thick until February.

Lake Michigan

With the exception of Beaver Island, where scientists anticipate coverage along the northern shore and close to the Straits of Mackinac, the ice on the Michigan side of the lake will stay less than an inch thick in February.

Before the end of the cold season, open water areas will receive little to no coverage.

Lake Huron

Lake Huron will largely remain ice-free in December. Ice will begin to form on the northern shore in early January and then accumulate close to the Straits of Mackinac.

Ice will be thin along the shoreline until the end of January and then start to accumulate by the middle of February as you travel down to Saginaw Bay.

Lake Erie and Lake St. Clair

December temperatures across the lower Great Lakes are predicted to be below average, while January and February will see warmer temperatures.

It won’t be until late January before any discernible ice forms on the western shores of Lake Erie and Lake St. Clair. Sandusky Bay will have the thickest of it. Early in February, the coastlines will be the first to freeze.

The lakes’ open water areas are probably not going to experience any ice formation.

Lake Ontario

Late December will see the formation of ice along the beaches, which will then build in January. By early February, the ice should be no thicker than eight tenths of an inch.

Associated

Pelicans swallow fish whole rather than chewing their diet. The eating behavior, which was observed close to a DTE facility in Monroe County, is only going to spread over time.

• For this report, the Great Lakes Environmental Research Lab provided information, including statistics from the U.S. National Ice Center.

For this report, the Great Lakes Environmental Research Lab provided information, including statistics from the U.S. National Ice Center.

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