Majority of Americans Believe TRUMP Committed a CRIME as New York Trial Nears Conclusion

As Donald Trump’s trial in New York City approaches its conclusion, the majority of Americans believe he committed a crime. But they’re not sure what the jury will do after it deliberates next week.

Fifty-six percent, or a majority, believe Trump is definitely or probably guilty of a crime in this case, in which he is charged with manipulating business records to conceal a “hush money” payment and influence the 2016 election.

Opinions are very partisan, with nearly all Democrats feeling Trump is guilty and roughly eight in ten Republicans expressing the contrary. Republicans are less certain about their opinions. While three out of four Democrats say he is “definitely” guilty, only half of Republicans say he is not.

The public is more divided on what they believe the jury will decide, with around half expecting jurors to find Trump guilty and half believing the opposite. And opinions on both sides are far from solid. For example, more people believe jurors would “probably” convict Trump than “definitely” convict him. If people believe Trump is guilty, they are likely to believe the jury will convict him. And vice versa for those who feel he is innocent of a crime. However, around one-third of each group expects the jury to rule against their beliefs.

Overall, around three-quarters of Americans say they have heard or read something about the trial. And those who claim to have heard “a lot” about it are the most polarized — they are more likely to identify as strong partisans and express greater confidence in Trump’s guilt or innocence, thus dampening the influence of a verdict on public opinion.