These 7 States Are the Most Likely to Flip in the Upcoming ‘Biden-Trump’ Election
The next November rematch between President Biden and former President Trump could be decided by a handful of states.
Six months before Election Day, all eyes are on seven toss-up states: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, where 93 electoral votes will be up for grabs in November.
Biden won all but North Carolina in 2020, but current polling suggests Trump has an advantage over the incumbent in most of those crucial states this season.
The fight for the White House may come down to these swing states:
1. Arizona
Last cycle, Biden won Arizona by nearly one-third of a percentage point, becoming the first Democratic presidential victory in the Republican bastion since the 1990s.
However, according to Decision Desk HQ/The Hill averages, Trump now leads Biden by about 6 points in Arizona, where border problems are expected to play a major role in November.
Meanwhile, Democrats are eyeing the Grand Canyon State, whose 11 electoral college votes are up for grabs, as one of several states where reproductive rights issues could spur participation to help the party.
The state just abolished a Civil War-era, near-total abortion ban, and activists are attempting to place a measure on the ballot that would include abortion safeguards.
Republicans make up the majority of registered Arizona voters, but those unaffiliated with either major party exceed Democrats in the state, according to last month’s voter registration data.
According to New York Times polling, Rep. Ruben Gallego, the Democratic Senate candidate in the state, is leading Republican competitor Kari Lake in the widely watched contest to replace Independent Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, as well as Biden. Gallego received 45 percent of the vote to Lake’s 41 percent, and Biden received 42 percent to Trump’s 49 percent.
2. Georgia
Biden flipped Georgia blue for the first time in decades in 2020, defeating Trump by fewer than 12,000 votes.
However, as the pair prepares for a rematch in the Peach State, the 2024 election lacks notable down-ballot candidates and evidence of the high turnout that aided Biden four years ago.
Georgia has 16 electoral votes in November, and polling averages from DDHQ/The Hill show Trump leading by about 6 points, 49 percent to Biden’s 43 percent.
According to the Times poll, Trump has an even greater advantage, leading by ten points.
Georgia voters elected Jon Ossoff, the state’s first Jewish senator, and Rev. Raphael Warnock, the state’s first Black senator, in the previous election cycle.
This year’s Republican primary had double the turnout of the Democratic primary, and Biden will need to rouse the state’s sizable Black population amid concerns that he is failing with the bloc nationally.
Former Georgia Lt. Gov. Geoff Duncan (R), one of the few notable Republicans backing Biden in November, has urged other Republicans not to “fall in line” with Trump. However, it is questionable whether Biden will be able to replicate his victory in Georgia this November.
3. Michigan
In Michigan, a battleground state that Biden won by nearly three points in 2020, the incumbent faced a large protest vote push in the Democratic primary from progressives and Arab Americans, inspiring similar ballot-box boycotts in other states such as Wisconsin.
Arab Americans helped propel Biden to victory last cycle, and it remains to be seen whether the important bloc would return to his side after voicing dissatisfaction in the primary elections.
First Lady Jill Biden visited the Great Lakes State last week, according to Michigan Democratic Party Chair Lavora Barnes, “proving the road to the White House runs through Michigan.”
Trump is up 4 points in the state, according to DDHQ/The Hill averages. Fifteen electoral college votes are at stake.
With a sizable Arab American population and a large student body, analysts believe the presidential campaign in the Great Lakes State has the potential to be a significant barometer for the larger 2024 contest.
4. Nevada
Along with Arizona, Nevada might be a big Sun Belt swing state in November. Both states have sizable Latino populations, and both candidates are making a bid for voters of color this November.
Biden won by 2.4 percent in 2020. In 2016, Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton also narrowly defeated Trump in Nevada.
According to DDHQ/The Hill’s averages, Trump now leads by roughly 7 points. According to the New York Times poll, Biden trails by 12 points in a head-to-head matchup, his worst showing among the battlegrounds in that survey.
Similar to Arizona, a third-party candidate in the Silver State might erode support for the major-party candidates. Another battleground in which Democratic Senate candidates outperform the president is Nevada, where Sen. Jacky Rosen (D) leads Republican Sam Brown by two points.
There are six electoral college votes on the table.
5. North Carolina
Though Biden won the majority of the swing states in 2020, Trump won North Carolina by about 1.5 points, after winning the state by a somewhat wider margin in 2016.
Biden’s team is now looking to reclaim North Carolina for the Democrats, but it has conceded that “relentless effort” would be required over the next six months.
North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper (D) indicated last month that he believes Biden has a chance to win the Tar Heel State. Former President Barack Obama was the last Democrat to win it back in 2008. Republicans are also dealing with a potential electoral problem in gubernatorial contender Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson, who has attracted criticism for previous inflammatory remarks.
The nonpartisan election handicapper According to the Cook Political Report, North Carolina leans Republican, while the other swing states are toss-ups.
There are sixteen electoral college votes up for grabs. According to the DDHQ/The Hill averages, Trump leads by 4.6 points.
6. Pennsylvania
The Pennsylvania primaries last month exposed flaws in both Biden’s and Trump’s campaigns as they head toward the November election.
Nikki Haley, who had dropped out of the campaign about two months before, garnered more than 150,000 Keystone State votes, including nearly 20% in many counties.
Though her statistics did not prevent Trump from winning the winner-take-all primary delegates, they did serve as a red flag for the former president in a critical battleground.
On the opposite side of the aisle, Biden faced his own protest vote campaign, with “Abandon Biden” encouraging voters to boycott the incumbent at the polls due to worries about the administration’s handling of the Israel-Hamas conflict.
However, like in Nevada, there is a highly popular Democratic senator running for reelection — in this case, Bob Casey, who has routinely polled ahead of Biden and his Republican opponent, David McCormick.
DDHQ/The Hill averages show Biden trailing by 1.7 points in a state he won by 1.2 points in 2020. According to a recent poll conducted by The New York Times/Siena College/Philadelphia Inquirer, Trump now has a three-point lead.
Pennsylvania has 19 electoral college votes up for grabs.
7. Wisconsin
Biden won Wisconsin by less than a percentage point in the 2020 campaign, and Trump now leads by less than one point, according to DDHQ/The Hill averages.
A Quinnipiac University poll released this month found that Biden’s lead over Trump in a Wisconsin head-to-head fell from 6 points to 1 point when third-party candidates were included, implying that Independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and other contenders could be major spoilers.
Biden visited Wisconsin earlier this month to highlight Microsoft’s $3.3 billion investment in the state’s new artificial intelligence data center, as well as to contrast it with a projected Trump-era investment that never materialized.
The Republican National Convention will be place this summer in Milwaukee, and Trump has intimated that he may unveil his running mate for 2024.
“It is a very crucial state for us. In an interview with Scripps News this week, Trump stated, “We must win Wisconsin.” “We want to win this. “If we win Wisconsin, I believe we will win the whole thing.”
Ten electoral college votes are at stake in Wisconsin.