Big Challenge! Biden and Trump Eye Michigan's Electoral Significance For 2024 Race

“Big Challenge!” Biden and Trump Eye Michigan’s Electoral Significance For 2024 Race

DEBARYLIFE – Michigan’s participation in presidential elections was regarded as all but certain not so long ago.

It solely supported Democratic nominees in national campaigns from 1992 to 2012. As the Republican nominee in 2008, U.S. Sen. John McCain left the state early, believing he needed to focus his energy elsewhere and that it was too difficult to win.

In 2016, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton lost the state to Donald Trump, albeit narrowly, and was chastised for not campaigning there more often as the Democratic nominee.

People are no longer taking Michigan for granted.

In the past two and a half months, former President Trump has made three trips to the state, including rallies in Saginaw and Oakland counties and a press conference on immigration in Grand Rapids. Two distinctly more low-key meetings with UAW members have taken place—in Warren in February and at a private home and golf club in Saginaw in March—between President Joe Biden and the organization.

However, Vice President Kamala Harris has also been in the area, speaking at a Grand Rapids discussion on reproductive rights, and on Monday, she will travel to Detroit to discuss the administration’s economic strategy. Additionally, on May 19, Biden will give a speech at the Detroit NAACP’s Fight for Freedom Fund gala, which is anticipated to draw thousands of guests to Huntington Place.

The number of campaign advertisements in the state has also increased six months before the election on November 5.

Big Challenge! Biden and Trump Eye Michigan's Electoral Significance For 2024 Race (1)

Is this a strange lot of activity? It most certainly is at this early stage of a presidential election. Usually, the state wouldn’t receive so much one-on-one attention until September. However, this is not out of the ordinary considering that it appears that Michigan could, and this is not hyperbole, win the election.

“It’s hard to find a more profound purple state than Michigan,” stated Jamaine Dickens, a political consultant based in Detroit. “I’m thinking that if I were Trump, I could win Michigan again because I’ve done it before. on Biden, there is a great deal of division in the society on the Israel-Hamas conflict.

Political analyst Ron Brownstein discussed the election this week in the Atlantic magazine, paying particular attention to Michigan. He noted that although Michigan is usually thought of as the most Democratic of the so-called Rust Belt swing states, along with Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, Biden has performed poorly in polls.

According to Brownstein, Biden has been “whipsawed by defections among multiple groups Democrats rely on, including Arab Americans, auto workers, young people, and Black Americans.” Biden defeated Trump in Michigan in 2020 by roughly 154,000 votes or slightly less than 3 percentage points.

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Nobody thinks that Biden cannot succeed in Michigan—quite the opposite. For voter outreach, get-out-the-vote campaigns, and stifling Trump’s messages with many commercials from his campaign fund and other Democratic political organizations in the media, his campaign has poured money and manpower into the state.

Although there are rumors that the Trump campaign has started building this kind of infrastructure in Michigan, it hasn’t been nearly as busy as other campaigns, mostly depending on the candidate, social media, and surrogates.

Democratic political consultant Jill Alper, based in Michigan, asserted that “you can’t win without Michigan.” “Therefore, make frequent, early, and constant visits. Ahead team should remain on the ground. Then arrange each inch.”

According to recent surveys, Trump appeared to have a larger advantage in Michigan late last year and early this year, often by as much as eight or ten points. However, the race is now closer than it was in those states. Despite Trump’s denials, his lead has shrunk to roughly one point, which is virtually a tie and well within the margin of error. Other recent surveys showed Biden just ahead of Trump, but again, this is within the margin of error.

That doesn’t explain why Michigan would be so significant on its own. What matters is the national context in which Biden and Trump find themselves during this election year, as well as the facts of the Electoral College calculation.

In summary, Biden prevailed in several swing states four years ago, including Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Nevada, Arizona, and Georgia. Let’s be clear that there is no solid proof that he did not, despite claims made by Trump and his supporters. This, along with every other state result, gave Biden a 306-232 advantage against Trump in the Electoral College. For a president to be elected, 270 Electoral College votes are needed.

Big Challenge! Biden and Trump Eye Michigan's Electoral Significance For 2024 Race (2)

Arizona and Georgia, two historically far more Republican-leaning states, seem like they might be harder for Biden to win this time around. Nevada also seems to be leaning more in Trump’s direction. Though conceivable, Democratic expectations of winning Florida and North Carolina are remote given that Biden’s favorability numbers are still low.

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Trump would have an Electoral College margin of 268 to 226 if Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada turn red, with everything else remaining the same as it did in 2020 and Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin not yet taken into account. However, this implies that to reach precisely 270, Biden will need to sweep those states. All Trump needs to do is win one of them. (Electoral College combinations can be experimented with at

Furthermore, Michigan has appeared to be the state most likely to turn around for months.

Why is Biden’s performance in Michigan in doubt?

Upon examining the surveys tracked by the Real Clear Politics website, it is evident why Michigan would be the focus of attention: Indeed, the current average of polls indicates that Trump is just marginally ahead of Biden in the state. However, Trump, not Biden, is leading in the great majority of the state’s surveys. Furthermore, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania did not significantly reproduce the wider margins that were observed in Michigan late last year and early this year.

Additionally, Biden has had difficulty holding his Democratic advantage among young voters and Black voters. A recent poll by FOX News indicated that 75% of that voting bloc supported Biden, but it is a far cry from the 92% of Black voters in Michigan who exited polls in favor of him in 2020.

“There are discussions among Black males in the barbershop community who are grassroots and who support Trump. They simply enjoy his style of politics,” Dickens remarked. “Biden has addressed the challenges correctly. However, for some reason, they perceive Trump as youthful and Biden as elderly even though the two candidates are practically the same age.”

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In addition, Biden faces intense criticism from Michigan’s sizable Arab American and Muslim communities regarding his administration’s unwavering backing of Israel and its failure to call for an end to the violence in Gaza, where tens of thousands of people have perished in counterattacks following Hamas’s October 7 attack on Israel.

Despite sending campaign personnel and Biden himself to Dearborn to meet with leaders, it doesn’t seem that this has eased their anxieties. Furthermore, when paired with other voting blocs, such as younger voters, those groups could hurt Biden’s chances even if they might not be able to swing an election on their own by switching parties or abstaining from voting.

In the meantime, Trump is attempting to incite Biden’s resentment toward immigration by asserting, devoid of supporting data, that an unprecedented influx of undocumented immigrants has increased crime.

Additionally, he is attempting to promote the idea that, despite advances in the stock market and significant increases in employment and pay, Biden has destroyed the economy. According to him, the Democratic president has allowed inflation to run wild and has made necessities like gas and groceries unaffordable for industrious Americans.

In addition, Trump is pushing cultural grievances, threatening to sever funding for historical and racial studies curricula, and pledging to undo the protections that the Biden administration has provided for transgender kids.

The Biden administration is also pushing for automakers to sell many more electric cars in the future, either by requirement or encouragement.

Although the UAW and Detroit’s automakers have generally welcomed the plans, there are serious worries about the impact on employment given that EVs require fewer personnel to assemble and that there are a significant number of traditional car and truck-related jobs in Michigan held by auto suppliers. Biden contends that the shift will strengthen and transform the US auto industry, while Trump fumes that it will destroy the sector and force automobiles from China.

“Trump is well positioned to benefit from the issues raised in this election. According to Jamie Roe, a Republican political consultant in Michigan who is assisting former U.S. Representative Mike Rogers in his bid for the state’s open U.S. Senate seat, “his message is right in line with where the voters are in this state.”

Roe pointed out that Trump’s victory eight years prior was largely predicated on his pledge to amend trade agreements to support autoworkers and halt the exodus of employment abroad. “I believe that the voters in this state trust Trump because he is committed to the topics he runs on. His coalition is growing among rural and blue-collar workers.

“He’s going to be in this fight until the end,” Roe said. “I think he’s going to win it.”

Voter Voices: Saginaw County, a political heavyweight in Michigan, is feeling its political juice

Given the former president’s persistent false assertions that the 2020 election was rigged against him and his attempts to have the results overturned, some of which have resulted in criminal indictments against him, Biden has pushed into arguments that Trump poses a threat to democracy.

Additionally, Biden has made a point of pointing out that Trump’s Supreme Court picks resulted in the overturning of Roe v. Wade, the ruling that up until 2022 secured the constitutional right to abortion, returning the matter to the states. This one issue was very significant in Michigan’s midterm elections.

Since voters in Michigan established a right to seek abortion care in the state constitution two years ago, it’s less apparent how abortion will factor into this election. Additionally, Trump has made an effort to minimize the problem by arguing that it is a state matter and advising his followers to put the matter behind them to win elections. However, he has refrained from explicitly stating that should Congress enact a nationwide prohibition, he would veto it.

Some of Biden’s other claims are more nuanced, such as the claim that his economic program has outperformed Trump’s: Even though Trump did not observe the increases in auto factories or jobs that he occasionally claimed, the economy was growing under his administration before the COVID-19 shutdowns. Under Biden, the economy has also expanded rapidly in terms of salaries and employment, but this has also been partially due to the epidemic recovery and has been accompanied by significantly higher inflation than in previous years.

Having said that, Biden will probably rely more and more on the platform that helped him win the presidency in 2020: Trump’s bluster, division, and bellicose actions toward both allies and immigrants.

Additionally, Trump will keep making the same allegations that have benefited him in the past, such as that America has lost its direction and is “failing,” and that Biden is corrupt and infirm without providing any proof to support them.

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However, there seems to be one difference between the former president’s campaign four years ago and now: instead of warning voters against mail-in or absentee ballots because they are prone to fraud, he is advising supporters to vote however they must increase his margins, as he did this week in Saginaw County. “We want a landslide that’s too big to rig,” he stated.

Election officials in Michigan are protesting about the recount law and are considering a proposal to change it.

State Republican Party Chairman Pete Hoekstra stated, “I think what you’re seeing is a very, very disciplined candidate and a very, very, well-run campaign.” “You’ll see this president (Trump) here a lot more.”

There’s hardly much that Hoekstra and Chairwoman Lavora Barnes of the state Democratic Party agree on. However, they both acknowledge that Michigan is on the route to the White House, perhaps more so than in previous years. Barnes declared, “Michigan is always a purple state.” “This is a place where (as a candidate) you need to come and have conversations with the voters.”

Hoekstra stated that Trump’s rally audiences demonstrate his more passion than Biden’s low-key events, but Barnes expressed her complete faith in the Biden campaign’s in-state network, which engages people daily and handles the behind-the-scenes work that ensures election victory.

“As election day approaches, voters will become more aware of their clear options. That Biden turns into the one solution,” she remarked.

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